A Maimonidean approach:

1. Every living person will, eventually die. This is the most incontrovertible truth. It is an absolute prophecy.

2. For large groups, a probabilty of an event, e.g. death, can be assigned with a certainty that is proportioanl to the size of the group.

3. The accuracy of a prediction about a group depends upon how well the group is defined.

4. Predictions about individuals are either trivial or unsupported.